The entire planet is dotted with geodetic stations that include a number of sensors of interest to geologists. Their idea makes use of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), such as the United States’ GPS or the European Galileo. “Large earthquakes occur 15 to 10 kilometers deep in the Earth’s crust, where we’ve never been able to look.” Julián García Mayordomo, expert in earthquake geology at Spain’s Geological and Mining Instituteīut scientists Quentin Bletery, from the French Côte d’Azur University, and Jean-Mathieu Nocquet, from the Institut de Physique du Planète in Paris, have found a way to detect the signal of a future earthquake amid all the noise. There are too many variables, which makes the phenomenon highly unpredictable.” It is a huge area where many geological processes occur. In addition, a major fault that produces earthquakes on the order of 6.5 or 7 is a plane that can be tens of kilometers long by 15 kilometers deep. As University of California professor Roland Bürgmann says, everything indicated that “earthquakes are often preceded by precursor processes.” But enthusiasm waned: “As scientists looked harder and had better observations of these precursors, they discovered that, while they sometimes happen, they could not really be distinguished from similar processes that often occur at other times and places.” Julián García Mayordomo, an expert in earthquake geology at Spain’s Geological and Mining Institute (IGME) also recalls the complexity: “Large earthquakes occur 10 to 15 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) deep in the earth’s crust, where we have never been able to look. The accumulation of data on earthquakes, new theoretical models, and laboratory experiments led to the dream of detecting phenomena and mechanisms that heralded an earthquake. In the 1970s, seismologists were euphoric. These researchers believe that deploying detection networks around major faults could help find that holy grail. As detailed in the journal Science, they have achieved this by analyzing miniscule displacements recorded by GPS. Now, French scientists have detected a precursor phase that begins hours before a major earthquake occurs. So far this century, more than one million people have died as a result of earthquakes, not counting the astronomical cost to infrastructure and the economy, particularly in developing countries. It is the holy grail of seismologists and geologists: finding a reliable clue as to when, where, and with what magnitude an earthquake will strike.
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